Jurrian van Irsel

Disentangling the contributions of different hosts to disease transmission is highly complex but critical for improving predictions, surveillance and response. This is particularly challenging in wildlife, with pathogens often infecting multiple species and data collection being difficult. Using the emergence of Usutu virus (USUV) in the Netherlands as a case study, we demonstrate the use of an approximate Bayesian computation framework on diverse data sources to uncover drivers of spatiotemporal wildlife disease emergence. We calibrated single- and multi-host mechanistic transmission models to five types of wildlife surveillance and research data, describing molecular and serological evidence of USUV in birds. Although Eurasian blackbirds, the primary target species for surveillance, were most severely affected, our models indicated that USUV could not persist in blackbirds alone. Our framework provided statistical support for additional, unobserved bird species to have contributed to transmission. This population of bird species is characterized by limited infection mortality, a longer lifespan and likely further dispersal than blackbirds. Immunity in this population appears to have protected blackbirds from further USUV-related population decline. Our results underscore the importance of considering multiple host populations to understand outbreak dynamics. Neglecting the multi-host context of transmission can impact the reliability of predictions and projected impact of interventions.

Mosquito-borne arboviruses, including Usutu virus (USUV) and West Nile virus (WNV), are emerging threats in Europe, with changes in climate, land use shifts, and increasing global connectivity influencing their dynamics. Understanding how these viruses emerge and establish in new regions is critical for mitigating risks and improving public and wildlife health preparedness. Here, we present a seven-year study (2016–2022, inclusive) documenting the emergence and spread of USUV and WNV in the Netherlands. We established a nationwide sampling framework integrating live birds sampling by volunteer ringers, dead birds referrals by citizen scientists and zoos, and mosquito trapping. Samples were analyzed using molecular, genomic, and serological methods. USUV was first detected in the Netherlands in 2016, caused major outbreaks in birds until 2018 and resurged in 2022. The dominant, enzootic lineage, Africa 3, co-circulated with sporadic introductions of lineage Europe 3. The first localized WNV lineage 2 outbreak occurred in live birds and mosquitoes in 2020, followed by a detection in a bird in 2022 and serological evidence of continued circulation, suggesting WNV is in an early stage of establishment. Our findings were crucial in detecting a human WNV outbreak, underscoring the value of integrated wildlife studies in detecting emerging threats to public health.

Usutu virus is a zoonotic arbovirus that causes massive mortality in blackbirds. Using a unique longitudinal dataset on the kinetics of virus-specific antibodies in naturally infected wild blackbirds (Turdus merula), we found that individual birds may remain seropositive for >1 year and that reinfection can occur despite low-level virus neutralizing antibodies.

To understand the consequences of anthropogenic and environmental changes for wildlife populations, it is important to study how individuals differ in their sensitivity to environmental change and whether this depends on individual characteristics. An individual's reproductive performance may provide an integrative, unidimensional proxy of an individual's characteristics. In this study, we define an individual's characteristics by three such reproductive states, namely successful, failed and non-breeders in the previous year. We used a 16-year dataset of individually marked breeding Eurasian Oystercatchers Haematopus ostralegus to examine the interannual fluctuations in reproductive success and survival among breeding states, and their state-dependent sensitivity to environmental conditions. Environmental conditions included available biomass of the main prey species of breeding Oystercatchers (Ragworm, Baltic Tellin and Lugworm), tidal height, which reflects one of the main causes of nest loss (flooding), and conditions that may impact the energetic requirements during incubation, such as temperature. We also included environmental variables measured in winter, including available biomass of the main winter prey species (Blue Mussel and Common Cockle) along with factors that may affect food availability and energetic requirements for homeostasis, namely bivalve weight loss, windchill, winter severity and precipitation. Breeding birds that were successful the previous year had higher survival and were more likely to remain successful, in comparison with failed or non-breeders. The effects of environmental conditions acted in the same direction on reproductive success but had opposite effects on survival among the three breeding states, especially for windchill and Blue Mussel biomass. The contrasting state-dependent effects of the environment on survival thus averaged out when examining consequences for lifetime reproductive nest success (LRnS); instead, LRnS was largely influenced by environmental conditions acting upon reproduction. Our study indicates that an individual's previous breeding state provides an integrative measure of heterogeneity in individuals' sensitivity of reproduction and survival to environmental change. Incorporating previous breeding state as a source of individual heterogeneity in population modelling may improve predictions of future population dynamics in a rapidly changing world.