Cyanobacteria bloom forecasts for tailored monitoring practices
Current cyanobacterial risk management in the Netherlands involves sampling every two weeks or weekly to establish whether cyanobacterial densities in recreational waters are within safe limits. Given the dynamic behaviour of cyanobacteria in response to meteorological conditions, however, densities at bathing sites may vary substantially day-by-day.
In this collaboration between NIOO, the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) and Deltares, we accomodate these dynamics into a responsive cyanobacterial risk management by integrating meteorological, statistical and ecological models for short-term forecasting of cyanobacterial bloom risks. We will feed the models with high frequency measurements of weather conditions and cyanobacterial biomass to further improve predictions. Ultimately, this should gear toward a more tailored cyanobacterial risk management.