Predicting evolution in the 'Origins Center'

Where does life on earth and in the universe come from? That emerged as one of the key questions after a nationwide public consultation to determine what problems scientists should focus on. The new Origins Center is preparing to tackle the question through five challenging 'game changers'. 

The Origins Center doesn't occupy an actual physical space, but it does have a website. On that website, it says the center's aim is "to spark and facilitate transdisciplinary research between scientists associated with Dutch universities and research institutes."

In other words: it encourages scientists from a broad range of disciplines to work together, who might not otherwise have found the time or the resources to join forces.

Learning from each other

"The general idea is that we try to learn as much as possible from each other", says Marcel Visser (NIOO-KNAW). He is one of the members of the Ecology and Evolution working group. Together with NIOO-director Louise Vet, who's been selected as one of the center's three 'figureheads'.

"When we get stuck working on something", says Visser, "scientists from some other discipline could step in and break the deadlock. Maybe they've come across the same problem before in their own work. Maybe they've even managed to solve it." 

In the Origins Center, ecologists work alongside geologists, systems biologists, chemists and astrophysicists. The stakes are by no means low, though: the Origins Center has defined five clear challenges that it describes as possible "game changers".

Tremendous impact

One of those five game changers is 'Finding Extraterrestrial Life'. "That's because if we were to succeed", says Visser, "it would undoubtedly have a tremendous impact. In fact, it would change everything."

The same is true for the game changer he himself is working on, 'Predicting Evolution'. Recently, he organised the Origins Center's multidisciplinary scientific workshop on the subject. "Evolution is such a complicated process. For the most part, what we do is to look back and try to grasp what's already happened. The challenge now is to turn that around; to look forward and predict what is yet to happen." 

How do human impacts such as climate change or urbanisation affect the development of specific traits in a particular species, for example? And how may we prevent the outbreak of new diseases and epidemics in the future?

Strictly long-term

It's an ambitious strategy, but not one that is likely to pay off in the short term. "We're probably talking fifteen to twenty years." Of course extended timeframes come with the territory: evolution takes time. But let's not go overboard and go for that long run right away, laughs Visser.

"It would be easy enough to make predictions about what's going to happen ten thousand years from now, as we're unlikely to still be there and be proved wrong. Look at the weather forecast, though: we're very good at telling what the weather's going to be like in the next five to ten days, but a month is a different story already. The same could well be true for evolution."

Species must adapt if they are to survive: to climate change, for one thing. But "how fast can a species adapt?" asks Visser. "If we could establish that in relation to climate change, we may end up with a pretty good idea of how that species will have developed in a hundred years'  time. So there's the challenge."

Reporting back

The members of the public who asked about the origin of life as part of the Dutch Science Agenda won't have to wait that long. Visser admits that at the moment, the Origins Center is still operating out of the public eye. But, he says, that's only because setting it up has taken most of the available time and energy. As soon as there's something worthwile to report back to society, "we'll do so".

It doesn't even have to be an actual result, stresses Visser. "It might be interesting for the public simply to see the process in action: how does it all work? How do you arrive at those results? That kind of outreach has an important place within the Origins Center."

On August 31 and September 1 the Origins Center's two-day scientific symposium Fundamentals of Life in the Universe will cover a wide spectrum of topics. Marcel Visser will speak on evolution on a changing planet.